Sarah Travers
Economists and financial experts across the globe are expressing concerns about the state of the global economy in 2024. In a recent survey conducted by the World Economic Forum (WEF), top economists are predicting a potential slowdown in global economic growth due to a combination of rising geopolitical tensions and various other factors.
This survey, which engaged 30 chief economists and was conducted between November and December of the preceding year, has unveiled that 56% of these experts anticipate a weakening of the global economy in 2024. This perspective aligns with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is also forecasting a slight dip in global economic growth, projecting a decrease from 3% in the previous year to 2.9% for 2024.
Economic analysts’ sentiments, however, vary across different regions. Europe, in particular, faces a challenging economic outlook, with a striking 77% of surveyed economists foreseeing a decrease in growth in the region. This represents a significant increase from earlier estimates.
The United States, another significant player in the global economy, has also witnessed a shift in economic sentiment. In a prior survey, 78% of economists had predicted moderate or higher growth in the U.S. for the current year. Nevertheless, recent research indicates a decrease in this optimism, with only 56% now expecting favorable economic conditions.
Despite these concerns, there is a relatively positive outlook for South Asia and East Asia and the Pacific among economists. However, when it comes to China, economic prospects are being viewed with more caution, as 69% of respondents expect only moderate growth in the world’s second-largest economy.
One of the primary concerns emphasized by the experts is the proliferation of geopolitical conflicts and tensions worldwide. A significant 69% of economists anticipate an escalation in geopolitical fragmentation throughout 2024. They believe that these geopolitical factors will contribute to heightened global economic volatility, with 87% expecting this trend to persist over the next three years. Furthermore, eight out of ten economists anticipate increased volatility in stock markets, adding to the uncertainty faced by businesses and investors.
The year 2024 also introduces added uncertainties due to an unusually high number of elections scheduled in over 75 countries, including major economies like the United States and the United Kingdom. These political events further contribute to the prevailing sense of instability and unpredictability.
On a more positive note, the survey suggests that 70% of economists anticipate a relaxation of financial conditions. Inflation expectations have also decreased across all regions, with particular improvements noted in Europe and the United States. Nevertheless, it’s crucial to note that two-thirds of the economists surveyed still anticipate moderate inflation in these regions.
The global economic landscape for 2024 seems to be characterized by caution and uncertainty, driven by geopolitical tensions and a variety of economic factors. While there are some positive developments, economists and policymakers are preparing for a potentially challenging year ahead as they navigate these turbulent waters.
