Rosalind Evans
As Alberta prepares for the upcoming elections, United Conservative Party’s (UCP) Danielle Smith and New Democratic Party’s (NDP) Rachel Notley are engaging in a cross-province campaign to garner votes, especially in the critical battleground of Calgary.
Alberta’s electorate will determine whether they wish to reinstate former premier Notley or maintain the current administration led by Smith, who, despite having been in power for seven months, is campaigning for election as the head of the government for the first time.
Notley, who disrupted the longstanding Conservative hegemony in Alberta when she was elected premier in 2015, lost the subsequent election to Jason Kenney and the UCP in 2019. Now, she finds herself locked in a neck-and-neck contest with Smith.
In an interview with The West Block’s Mercedes Stephenson, Notley discussed her campaign’s objectives, including her plans for collaboration with the federal government if elected. Despite several requests for an interview, Smith’s campaign team declined.
“The Albertans I speak with do not wish to secede from Canada. They aspire to lead it,” stated Notley.
She emphasized the importance of negotiating from a position of strength and intelligence to achieve the best outcomes for the province, a process that she feels needs to be addressed in recent years, leading to lost opportunities and investments.
After becoming premier, Smith proposed the Sovereignty Act, which empowers the province to resist federal government intrusion in private property, natural resources, economic regulation, and social programs delivery. She also contemplated replacing the RCMP with a provincial police force, instituting a regional revenue agency, and withdrawing from the Canada Pension Plan. However, she decided not to campaign on these issues, suggesting they could be revisited post-election.
Notley criticized Smith’s legislation as creating “instability that weakens Alberta’s position in the Confederation, deterring businesses and investments.”
According to Notley, the significant threat to investments in Alberta is the prevailing instability and doubts about the safety of assets in the province rather than any policies proposed by her party.
Notley’s campaign promises include a commitment not to increase personal or small business taxes while proposing an increase in Alberta’s corporate tax rate from eight to 11 percent.
Calgary remains a critical determinant of the election outcome, with many races in the balance. As rural areas show considerable support for the UCP and Edmonton favouring the NDP, the result will likely hinge on Calgary, where both parties are campaigning fervently.
Calgary Conservative MP Ron Liepert told Stephenson, “It’s all going to depend on whether moderate Conservatives decide to vote for the UCP despite their reservations. If they do, I think UCP has a good chance of winning.”
Notley, however, remains hopeful, citing the significant turnout at NDP rallies in Calgary.
Calgary comprises 26 electoral districts, with all but three currently under UCP control. However, election analysts predict possible changes in this pattern.
Former UCP communications director Evan Menzies believes the UCP could withstand losing up to 10 seats in Calgary and still prevail.
According to Menzies, the real challenge is encouraging voter turnout, as the NDP poses a significant threat.
In his words, “UCP has faced several contentious battles over the past years. With Danielle being premier for only seven months, uniting the party and motivating them to vote is a significant task, but I believe it’s possible.”
As Alberta’s election day looms, the political landscape remains dynamic, with Notley and Smith at the forefront, battling for control. With Calgary as the pivotal battleground, the upcoming days will be crucial in swaying voters. Whether the province will give Notley a chance for a comeback or let Smith continue to lead the way remains to be seen. The elections could reshape Alberta’s political scene and impact its relations with the federal government, making them an event to watch closely.
