Rosalind Evans
China has shown an interest in stepping up as a mediator in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, putting forth offers to facilitate discussions between the two countries since the onset of the invasion. Despite this, China’s proximity to Russia throughout the conflict has been noticeably tight, with the country refraining from criticizing or condemning Russia’s aggressive actions towards Ukraine.
This reflects the ideological alignment between China and Moscow, both of which have expressed a desire for a more “multipolar world,” opposing Western dominance. Despite multiple dialogues with Russian President Vladimir Putin and even a trip to Moscow, only recently did Chinese President Xi Jinping reach out to his Ukrainian counterpart for the first time.
In their conversation, Xi Jinping pledged to dispatch special envoys to Ukraine and engage in discussions with all involved parties to reach a ceasefire and a peaceful resolution to what China has labelled a “crisis.”
This week, China’s special representative on Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, is set to visit Ukraine, Russia, and several European countries. These visits aim to discuss a political resolution for the Ukrainian crisis, as stated by China’s foreign ministry.
China’s desire for a swift end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is undeniable. The unpredictable nature of the war, its uncertain conclusion, and the resulting global economic instability is seen by Beijing as undesirable side effects.
However, China’s intent to serve as an impartial mediator in one of Europe’s most brutal conflicts in decades — a conflict that has put Russia (and sometimes China) at odds with the West — raises questions about China’s diplomatic capabilities and neutrality, as well as its ultimate goal as a mediator.
Experts on Chinese politics and international relations note that China is more concerned about something other than the winner of the war or the specifics of the peace deal. Instead, they suggest that China’s primary goal is to emerge as the international partner that brings Russia and Ukraine to the negotiation table and ends the war.
Ryan Hass, a China expert at the Brookings Institution and a former senior Asia director in the Obama administration’s National Security Council, stated, “China is less concerned about the outcome of the war between Russia and Ukraine and more focused on securing the peace.”
He added, “China aims to play a role in shaping the future European security architecture and to be seen as crucial to Ukraine’s reconstruction and Europe’s overall recovery from the conflict.”
According to analysts, China’s diplomatic efforts are not solely driven by a desire for peace. Cheng Chen, professor of political science at the University at Albany, State University of New York, said, “China is positioning itself as a superpower and has every incentive to demonstrate its diplomatic prowess as a global mediator. If China can broker a deal that spares Russia embarrassment, it could strengthen ties between the two countries.”
Another potential benefit of China’s involvement is that it could attract support from the Global South — a term generally used to refer to developing countries in Latin America, Africa, Asia, and Oceania — and European powers reluctant to witness a prolonged war in Europe.
However, doubts still need to be made about whether China possesses the diplomatic finesse required to bring Russia and Ukraine back to the negotiation table. China’s support for Russia could harm its credibility as a neutral mediator in Kyiv.
Alicja Bachulska, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, highlighted the imbalance in China’s relations with Russia and Ukraine, saying, “China has yet to recognize the aggressor, Russia, and continues to blame the U.S. and NATO for the war.”
Despite this, some analysts believe that China’s close ties with Russia could serve as leverage to benefit both sides in the conflict
Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the Eurasia Group, views the conflict as an opportunity for China in global diplomacy, remarking that “Xi has more leverage over Putin than anyone else.”
Chen from the University of Albany concurred, suggesting that China’s perceived alignment with Russia could be its ace in the hole. “While China is seen as too close to Russia to be truly ‘neutral’ in potential mediation efforts, its unique position as one of Russia’s few remaining international allies, providing crucial diplomatic and economic support, grants it the capacity to bring Russia to the negotiating table and influence its stance in ending the conflict,” Chen stated.
China’s foreign ministry reiterated last Friday that since the start of the conflict, China has maintained “an objective and fair position and actively promoted peace talks.” The ministry stated that its peace plan “takes into account the legitimate concerns of all parties,” and the upcoming visit by the Chinese representative underscores China’s dedication to promoting peace talks.
The ministry further noted the global “spillover effects of the crisis” and expressed a commitment to “continue to play a constructive role and build more international consensus on ending hostilities, starting peace talks and preventing an escalation of the situation.”
Achieving peace, however, will be a daunting task for any potential mediator. The war has lasted for over fifteen months, proving that Ukraine will not succumb to Russia easily. For President Vladimir Putin, conceding territorial gains, especially in areas like Crimea, is not an option.
Ukraine insists on a complete withdrawal of all Russian forces from occupied territories and the restoration of its territorial integrity, including Crimea and four other regions that Russia claimed to have annexed last year. Ukraine is likely to monitor the progression of its current counteroffensive before considering China’s offer to broker a peace deal, apprehensive that any agreement might involve ceding territory to Russia.
Ukrainian analysts have expressed skepticism about China’s ability or willingness to assist Ukraine. Oleksandr Musiyenko, a military expert and head of the Centre for Military and Legal Studies in Kyiv, voiced concerns that China would propose a peace agreement favouring Russian conditions, which wouldn’t be acceptable for Ukraine.
He stated that Ukraine could only accept a peace agreement that upheld the country’s territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence. Before any deal could be reached, Ukraine’s territories would have to be de-occupied by Russian forces.
Musiyenko said he didn’t anticipate that “Chinese peace agreements and draft peace agreements will mean something good for us because they’re viewing Ukraine from a Russian perspective.”
“They are not objective in this case,” he added.
China’s efforts to mediate in the Ukraine-Russia conflict come with many complexities. While China seeks to establish itself as a key player in international diplomacy, questions about its neutrality and intentions persist. As the conflict unfolds, the world will see if China can bring these warring parties to the negotiation table and help broker a peaceful resolution.
