Rosalind Evans
President Joe Biden has already obtained a significant achievement from his European journey – a result that undermines Russia’s strategic stance, adding to the adverse consequences of its invasion of Ukraine.
Turkey’s decision to lift its blockade on Sweden’s accession to NATO marks a notable and surprising shift on the eve of the NATO summit in Lithuania. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reversed his stance mere hours after indicating that Sweden would be left out until Turkey received its much-delayed European Union membership.
Sweden’s eventual inclusion in NATO will amplify Biden’s standing as a U.S. leader who rejuvenated and broadened the alliance. Like Sweden, Finland decided to join NATO post the Ukraine invasion, extending NATO’s border along Russia by hundreds of miles. Biden’s provision of arms and ammunition to Ukraine and his alliance leadership have solidified him as a crucial player in transatlantic affairs since George H.W. Bush. However, his legacy will primarily hinge on the Ukraine war outcome and his ability to evade a confrontation with Russia.
Turkey’s volte-face will also boost morale at the NATO summit, which faced potential division over Ukraine’s plea for a membership schedule. Before he departed from the U.S., Biden stated that Ukraine wasn’t prepared for membership. Any new member states require unanimous consent from all NATO members to join and benefit from its collective security guarantee.
Erdogan’s decision is a significant blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Firstly, it facilitates NATO’s expansion and bolsters the alliance after Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, despite his largely amicable ties with Putin, Erdogan’s choice thwarts Russia’s efforts to destabilize NATO unity.
Erdogan, known for his unpredictability, has used Turkey’s strategic location between the West and the East to reinstate his country as a regional powerhouse. While it remains unclear if Erdogan achieved anything more than symbolic concessions from Sweden, NATO’s European powers, and the U.S., his sudden policy shift suggests a potential strategic miscalculation. He had previously lifted objections to Finland joining the alliance.
Having recently secured reelection, Erdogan has been a continual source of frustration for consecutive U.S. presidents due to his geopolitical posturing and authoritarian rule. The U.S. is concerned that this approach will undermine Turkey’s secular constitution and democracy. His relationship with Putin and rumoured overtures to Syria have further aggravated the U.S.
Turkey’s reversal appears to result from diligent diplomacy and a phone call from Biden to Erdogan. In the ring, Biden strongly desired Sweden’s swift NATO membership. Jake Sullivan, U.S. National Security Advisor, indicated that the agreement emerged following talks between NATO, Turkey, and Sweden. He also noted recent U.S. engagements, including Biden’s meeting with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson in Washington.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer hailed the resolution of the deadlock and praised Biden’s expertise in foreign policy, lauding the move as a victory for America, the West, freedom, and President Biden.
Ankara’s media quoted a senior official stating that Erdogan received Sweden’s full support for Turkey’s long-stalled EU membership. However, any meaningful breakthroughs for Turkey seem improbable. Erdogan’s clampdown on human rights and the media have further fueled doubts about Turkey’s eligibility for EU membership. As part of their agreement, Sweden and Turkey agreed to cooperate in counter-terrorism efforts, and NATO consented to appoint a new counter-terrorism coordinator. These moves seem to cater to Erdogan’s demands for action against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party in Sweden.
Another consideration that might have influenced Erdogan’s decision is the proposal by a bipartisan group of senators for Biden to postpone the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey until it rescinded its objections to Sweden’s NATO membership.
Erdogan’s hardline stance before the NATO summit fell notably short of his aims. He had tied Sweden’s NATO membership to Turkey’s EU aspirations.
Erdogan’s abrupt change of position was deemed “fascinating” by Beth Sanner, the Former Deputy Director of National Intelligence. She suggested on CNN that Erdogan might have overplayed his hand by placing the EU membership on the table.
Erdogan’s reversal could adversely impact his relationship with Putin. However, Erdogan will likely continue to balance diverse geopolitical interests to maximize his and Turkey’s power. His recent actions indicate a substantial break from Putin, but those expecting him to cease his political maneuvering may be disappointed.
In conclusion, Erdogan’s unexpected policy reversal has garnered significant attention and reshaped the geopolitical landscape. This shift has positively impacted Biden’s foreign policy success and diminished Putin’s strategic position. Despite the complex interplay of interests, one thing is clear: both leaders will continue to navigate these tumultuous waters in their bid for power and influence. Amidst these events, Biden’s European visit has yielded a significant triumph, marking a new chapter in transatlantic affairs.
