Rosalind Evans
As Russia gears up for its 2024 presidential election, set for March 17, the possibility of Vladimir Putin securing a fifth term gains momentum. With the unanimous decision by the Federation Council, Russia’s upper house of parliament, the stage is set for a tightly controlled political contest. Despite Putin’s lack of official announcement regarding his candidacy, expectations are high for his participation, especially with the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov urging patience on this matter.
The election date announcement by Valentina Matviyenko, the speaker of the Federation Council, effectively signals the commencement of the election campaign. Putin, at 71, remains a dominant figure in Russian politics, having consolidated considerable control over the system during his 24 years in power. His potential to stay in power until 2036, under constitutional reforms he orchestrated, adds to the gravity of this election.
Opposition voices, like imprisoned leader Alexei Navalny, continue to challenge Putin’s authority, with Navalny calling for a vote against Putin as a referendum on his actions and the ongoing war. However, many critics find themselves either jailed or exiled and independent media face bans, diminishing the possibility of a fair contest.
The candidates set to run against Putin are not yet clear. While figures like former lawmaker Boris Nadezhdin and journalist Yekaterina Duntsova have shown interest, their path to the ballot is fraught with challenges, including stringent signature collection requirements. The candidacy of hard-line nationalist Igor Strelkov seems unlikely due to extremism charges and his critical stance against Putin.
Amidst this, Putin’s approach to candidacy remains speculation, with possibilities of him running as an independent or under the banner of A Just Russia party. Dmitry Oreshkin, an independent political analyst, anticipates a non-competitive ballot featuring Putin and other less popular candidates.
The Central Election Commission’s decision to include online voting and potentially extend voting to three days raises concerns about election transparency and the effectiveness of independent monitoring, as highlighted by Stanislav Andreychuk of the election monitoring group Golos.
The Russian presidential election 2024 is shaping up to be a significant event, not so much for its competitiveness but for its symbolism and implications for Putin’s hold on power. With stringent controls on the political system and limitations on opposition, the election is less about choosing a leader and more a measure of Putin’s grip on the country’s power structure. The coming months will reveal more about the candidates and the nature of the campaign, but the outcome is a foregone conclusion in the shadow of Putin’s enduring influence.
