The Uncertain Future of Russian Politics: Who Could Lead If Putin Doesn’t Run?

November 2, 2023
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In Russia, there is growing speculation about the political landscape and the potential candidates who could emerge if President Vladimir Putin does not seek reelection. Putin, now aged 71, has ruled the country for 24 years, and while he has pushed through constitutional changes that would allow him to serve two more six-year terms, his age and health could influence his decision. In a country where the ruling United Russia party primarily controls the political system, and there are no primary elections for voters to choose a candidate, the question of who could replace Putin is complex and uncertain. 

There are several potential contenders from within the current power structure, including Dmitry Medvedev, Alexei Dyumin, Sergei Sobyanin, Mikhail Mishustin, and Nikolai Patrushev. Each of these individuals brings a unique set of experiences and qualifications to the table, and it is still being determined which, if any, would garner the necessary support to become Putin’s successor. Dmitry Medvedev, who previously served as president and is now deputy head of the National Security Council, has become a vocal supporter of the war in Ukraine and has gained popularity among Russian nationalists. Alexei Dyumin, the governor of the Tula region, is known for his close relationship with Putin and has been tipped as a possible successor for years. Sergei Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow, has overseen significant changes in the city and has a strong portfolio of accomplishments. Mikhail Mishustin, the current prime minister, is a technocrat who has received high approval ratings for his work. Finally, Nikolai Patrushev, the head of the National Security Council, has echoed and amplified Putin’s hawkish views and hatred towards the West.

Despite the uncertainty surrounding Putin’s potential reelection, one thing is clear: the future of Russian politics is a complex and ever-evolving landscape that will be shaped by a variety of factors, including the will of the people, the power dynamics within the ruling party, and the geopolitical realities of the time. The world will watch closely as Russia navigates this crucial historical juncture.

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