Rosalind Evans
A binding agreement to prevent a worldwide food crisis after Russia invaded Ukraine has been extended for another two months.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Wednesday that Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey had agreed to extend the Black Sea grain deal.
Ukraine is among the largest grain exporters globally. However, after the war began, Russia imposed blockades on Ukrainian ports, raising concerns about a potential global famine.
Since last summer, an agreement between the warring factions has allowed for the safe passage of ships from Ukraine. It is the only significant agreement between the parties since the war started.
The deal has been extended for the third time, overcoming doubts about its continuation. Here is everything you need to know about it.
What is the Black Sea grain deal, and why is it important?
The Black Sea grain deal was initially reached in July 2022.
Russia blocked crucial grain exports from key Ukrainian Black Sea ports, including Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi. US intelligence also indicated that Russian forces deployed mines in the Black Sea.
These blockades resulted in millions of tons of Ukrainian grain being unable to reach countries that rely on it.
The impact of the war on global food markets was immediate and severe, mainly because Ukraine is a major grain supplier to the World Food Programme (WFP). According to the European Commission, Ukraine accounts for 10% of the world wheat market, 15% of the corn market, and 13% of the barley market and plays a significant role in the global sunflower oil market.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), a UN body, warned that the war could push up to 47 million people into “acute food insecurity,” with Western officials accusing Russia of using food as a weapon.
The agreement, facilitated by the United Nations and Turkey with Russia and Ukraine, established procedures to ensure the safe export of grain from Ukrainian ports.
Under the deal, grain ships could navigate a secure corridor in the Black Sea under the guidance of Ukrainian pilots and then pass through the Bosphorus Strait in northwestern Turkey to reach global markets.
The agreement has played a vital role in stabilizing global food prices and providing relief to developing countries that rely on Ukrainian grain exports.
Since the deal was implemented, approximately 900 ships have safely left Black Sea ports, delivering 24 million tons of grain to countries in Africa and the Middle East.
Who are the leading players?
The Black Sea grain deal was an agreement between Russia and Ukraine, although it was not a direct agreement. During the signing ceremony in Istanbul, representatives from Russia and Ukraine did not sit together, as reported by The Washington Post.
Turkey, a NATO member, positioned itself as an intermediary between Kyiv and Moscow since the beginning of the conflict and brokered the rare deal with the United Nations.
As part of its role in the pact, Turkey inspects all merchant vessels passing through the Black Sea in specially designated safe corridors.
Another crucial aspect of the deal is the Joint Coordination Center (JCC), established in Istanbul under the auspices of the UN.
The JCC comprises 20 officials, with five representatives from Russia, Ukraine, the UN, and Turkey. Its mandate is to monitor vessel movements and ensure compliance with all parties’ initiatives.
Why was the deal’s renewal in question for the third time?
The survival of the deal depended on Russia’s decision. Before its third renewal, the Kremlin remained still determining whether it would continue to be part of the agreement.
The deal was initially brokered for 120 days and was set to expire in November of the previous year.
Russia suspended its participation for a few days in late October and early November, citing drone attacks on the city of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea. Moscow later announced its reversal and rejoined the agreement for another 120 days following mediation.
In March, the deal was extended for 60 days and was scheduled to expire on Thursday, May 18.
Before Wednesday’s announcement, it was still being determined whether the agreement would be renewed for a third time, as urgent talks in Istanbul earlier this month failed to reach a decisive outcome.
Russia once again threatened to withdraw from the deal and presented a list of demands, primarily concerning exporting its food products and fertilizers.
Moscow repeatedly complained that a separate agreement with the UN, aimed at facilitating shipments of Russian fertilizers and grain and brokered as part of the package in July, had not produced the expected results.
The Kremlin also warned that it would terminate the deal if the Group of Seven (G7) nations imposed further export bans on Russia as part of sanctions due to its invasion of Ukraine. Last month, Bloomberg reported that G7 officials were considering an almost complete ban on exports to Russia, increasing economic pressure on the country.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin cautioned after the Istanbul talks that if there were no consensus by May 18, the deal would “cease to exist.”
On the brink of its expiration, Erdogan confirmed on Wednesday that the deal would be extended for two additional months. Ukrainian and Russian officials later confirmed this.
Oleksandr Kubrakov, the Ukrainian Minister of Communities, Territories, and Infrastructure Development, stated on Facebook, “The grain deal has been unblocked and will continue to be in effect until July 18. The world will continue to receive Ukrainian products thanks to the efforts of our partners in the agreement—Turkey and the UN.”
However, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova cautioned that “distortions in the implementation of the grain deal should be corrected as quickly as possible.”
Does everyone benefit from the grain deal?
Not entirely. Following Russia’s blockade, the European Union lifted all duties on land-based grain exports from Ukraine to facilitate trade.
However, this led to an influx of cheap Ukrainian grain into central and eastern Europe, negatively impacting local producers’ sales.
Last month, protesters blocked traffic and border checkpoints with tractors along the border between Romania and Bulgaria to prevent Ukrainian trucks from entering their countries.
These visible expressions of discontent were significant in a region that has consistently supported Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. Bulgarian Agriculture Minister Yavor Gechev expressed solidarity with Ukraine but also highlighted the creation of a local glut in the agricultural market, turning their countries into warehouses instead of export corridors.
To address the unrest, the EU implemented a temporary measure that bans the export of wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower seed originating in Ukraine to Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized these “protectionist measures” as “completely unacceptable.”
Extending the crucial Black Sea grain deal temporarily relieves the global food crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While the agreement has facilitated the safe export of Ukrainian grain and stabilized food prices, challenges remain, including tensions between Russia and Ukraine, concerns about distortions in implementation, and the impact on local producers in neighbouring European countries. As the deal continues, it is crucial for all parties involved to work towards long-term solutions that ensure food security and stability in the region.
