Sarah Travers
Ukraine is facing dual challenges: a relentless war with Russia and fluctuating political support from the United States. With the conflict extending beyond 30 months, the situation on the battlefield grows increasingly dire. Concurrently, the vital backing from the US is becoming more uncertain due to changing political dynamics.
A significant six-month delay in US military aid has allowed Russian forces to make progress on the front lines. Ukrainian troops are now struggling to halt the gradual advances of Russia’s better-equipped army. Analysts predict that the next few months will be among the toughest for Ukraine this year, as it attempts to stabilize defenses and reclaim lost ground.
Political Shifts and Their Effects
The political environment in the US is adding to Ukraine’s difficulties. Former President Donald Trump has selected Senator JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate for the upcoming election. Vance’s focus on domestic issues over foreign conflicts aligns with Trump’s stance. Trump has asserted he would end the war swiftly if re-elected, though he has not provided details on his strategy.
In Europe, Hungary’s pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is causing friction within the European Union by engaging with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. These actions have angered other EU leaders and complicated the political support on which Ukraine depends.
Battlefield Dynamics and Defense Strategies
Russia currently holds 18% of Ukrainian territory, a situation that arose after Ukrainian forces pushed them out of half the areas they initially seized following the full-scale invasion in February 2022. While Russia has not secured a significant battlefield victory since capturing the eastern stronghold of Avdiivka in February, its forces are now advancing in the border regions of Kharkiv in the northeast, Donetsk in the east, and Zaporizhzhia in the south.
Ukraine has adopted an elastic defense strategy, giving up some territory to wear down Russian troops until Western supplies reach the front lines. Despite this, analysts warn that Russia could win a prolonged war of attrition unless Ukraine can launch a successful counteroffensive using an element of surprise. Meanwhile, Russia continues to fire missiles into rear areas, targeting civilian infrastructure and conducting airstrikes that have resulted in civilian casualties.
Infrastructure and Military Resources
Russia’s persistent missile and drone attacks have severely damaged Ukraine’s power infrastructure, destroying 80% of its thermal power and one-third of its hydroelectric power. This damage sets the stage for a challenging winter. Ukraine needs extensive air defenses to protect its vast territory, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stating that 25 Patriot air defense systems are needed to defend its airspace adequately.
Ammunition supplies are slowly improving as new deliveries reach the front lines, narrowing Ukraine’s artillery disadvantage. However, it will take time for Ukraine to replenish its depleted stocks and prepare for a counteroffensive. Russia, on the other hand, is heavily investing in defense to sustain its war efforts.
Fortifications, Conscription, and International Assistance
Russia’s tactic of demolishing towns and villages to deny Ukrainians defensive cover has led to widespread destruction. However, Ukraine’s fortifications have improved in recent months. Although Russia has made some progress along the 1,000-kilometer front line, its advances have been costly and without major breakthroughs.
In April, Ukraine expanded its military conscription to bolster its forces, though challenges with training and equipment shortages persist. Fourteen brigades are still awaiting their promised Western weapons. On a positive note, NATO countries have committed to providing long-term security assistance and military training, including more Stinger missiles and preparations to deliver the first F-16 warplanes donated by European countries.
Despite these efforts, President Zelenskyy has expressed frustration, emphasizing that Ukraine cannot win the war unless the US lifts its restrictions on using American weapons to target military sites on Russian soil. As Ukraine navigates these complex challenges, the nation’s resilience and strategic decisions in the coming months will be crucial in determining the outcome of this prolonged conflict.
